我国景气变动的原因分析

Study on the Reason of Business Cycles in Our Economy

自改革开放以来，我国已经历了三次经济周期。为了保证经济的正常运行，我们需要分析过去景气变动的真正原因。本文利用ＶＡＲ模型建立了“预测误差分解模型”讨论了引起景气变动的几个主要因素并对其相对重要性进行评价。

Since China's reform and opening, our country has been involved in three business cycles.We need to analyze the real reason of the past business cycles to make the macroeconomics run regularly.According to VAR model, the author models forecasting error decomposition model to discuss the main factors which causes the cycle and evaluate the relative importance of these factors