敏感性分析在项目可行性研究中的运用——以生物可降解塑料袋为例

Utilization of Sensitive Analysis in Project Feasibility Study——Take the Biology May Degrade Plastic Bag as an Example

敏感性分析是项目经济评价中不可缺少的部分,为了使投资者事先对承担的风险有所了解,更好地做出投资决策,需要在经济评价的同时,做好敏感性分析。本文通过对敏感性分析在生物可降解塑料袋项目可行性研究中的一系列分析,首先计算各因素的利润灵敏度,然后对各因素进行敏感分析,从定量分析的角度研究有关因素发生某种变化对某一个关键指标的影响程度,通过逐一改变相关变量数值的方法来解释关键指标受这些因素变动影响大小的规律,阐述了敏感性分析的具体运用及其重要意义,以期根据分析结果,结合实际情况采取有关措施,为决策者和未来项目的经营者提供依据。

The sensitive analysis is an essential part in the project economic evaluation. The investors need to understand the risk beforehand and make the investment decision well,therefore,it is necessary to do the economic evaluation as well as make the sensitive analysis. While in this article,we conducted a series of sensitive analyses in the biology degrade plastic bag projects,first we calculates various factors of the profit sensitivity,then carries on the sensitive analysis to various factors, and then research the influence degree of the factors＂ change to one certain key index through quantitative analysis,and tries to explain the disciplines of the influence by changing the correlated variable value,and then explained the application and its meaning of sensitive analysis. According to the analysis result,we can take some measures and provides decision evidence for decision makers and entrepreneurs.