基于公司治理变量的财务困境预测研究

Corporate Governance Variables on Financial Distress Forecast Research

传统的财务困境预测大都基于财务指标。文章在理论分析的基础上,以96家ST上市公司和286家非ST上市公司为研究对象,强调利用公司治理变量构建财务困境预测模型。研究结果表明:公司治理变量不但对公司陷入财务困境具有显著影响,而且具有较好的预测能力。这一方面说明公司治理对公司的财务安全具有重要影响,另一方面也说明今后在研究和构建财务困境预测模型时,不仅要考虑财务信息,还要考虑公司治理信息,这样才能构建出更为有效的预测模型。

Traditional financial distress forecast was based on financial indexes. After theory analysis, this paper takes 96 ST eompanies and 286 normal companies as the research sample to build a financial distress forecasting model on corporate government variables. The results show, some eorporate government variables not only have significant influence onleading a company to financial distress situation, but also have good forecasting ability. This tells us that corporate government is a very important faetor for companies＇ financial safety. On the other hand, it should be in our mind, when we will research or build a more effective financial distress foreeasting model for the future, company government information must be taken into aecount as well as financial information.