摘要
弹性系数法是交通预测的一种基本方法,其结果不仅受经济指标预测值的影响,还与预测方法的选择息息相关.文中以模糊多元回归理论为基础建立运输量与相关经济变量之间的关系式,并进行模型求解,进而可以对运输弹性系数进行预测.通过湖南省的公路客运量弹性系数预测结果表明,基于模糊多元回归模型的弹性系数预测方法可以确定弹性系数的变化范围,能够有效地解决观测数据不精确,以及指标变化不确定带来的预测精度问题,合理反映运输与经济发展的趋势关系.
The elastic coefficient method is one essential method to traffic forecast. Its result not only receives the economic indicator predicted value the influence, but also is closely linked with forecast technique＇s choice. Based on fuzzy multiple regression theory, the relationship is established between freight volume and the related economic variable, and the model is solved, then transport elasticity coefficient is forecasted. Hunan＇s highway passenger transport elasticity coefficient forecast result indicated that based on fuzzy multiple regression＇s elasticity coefficient forecast technique by the determination elasticity coefficient＇s range of variation, may effectively solve imprecise observation data and forecast precision question brought by indefinite target change, and reflect transportation and economical trend of development relations reasonably.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2009年第2期333-336,共4页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
基金
湖南省交通厅科技项目资助(批准号:CCMC04001)
关键词
弹性系数
模糊多元回归
运输量
预测
elasticity coefficient fuzzy multiple regression transportationvolume
forecast
