摘要
分段建模技术在社会科学研究中还很少见,它在自然科学中的研究,大多数仅局限于讨论其建模后的连续性,基本上是以样条函数为工具。利用SPSS13.0就改革开放30年来的中国国际入境旅游外汇收入实际数据进行全面的技术研究,并通过与单一的曲线拟合效果进行对照,取得了满意的统计模型和预测效果。其目的在于这一技术的进一步推广,避免中国目前众多的规划项目中粗糙模型的不准确预测和差异较大的规划决策后果。
The multi - phase fitting technology is rarely seen in the social sciences research. In natural sciences＇ research, majority of them are limited on discussing the continuity of the modeling, taking the spline function as the tool. Here uses SPSS13.0 to conduct the comprehensive engineering research on the reform and open policy for 30 year China international entry foreign exchange earnings from tourism actual data, and by comparison with the sole curve fitting effect, has obtained the satisfactory fitting and the forecast effect. Its goal lies in the further promotion of this technical, avoids in our country present numerous planned project the inaccurate forecast of the rough models and the big difference of the plan decision - making consequence.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2009年第4期21-26,31,共7页
Journal of Statistics and Information
关键词
分段拟合技术
曲线建模
统计检验
效果对照
模型遴选
趋势预测
multi- phase fitting technology
curve modeling
statistical test
effect comparison
model choosing
tendency forecast
