中国煤炭行业市场结构与经济绩效实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Market Structure and Performance in Chinese Coal Industry

运用中国煤炭行业产业和公司数据,结合市场化进程加快和经济周期起落的背景,首次测算了1979-2007年中国煤炭行业市场集中度,认为2007年以后市场结构出现类似寡头竞争的特征。根据中国煤炭行业的特殊性,提出决定产业绩效的理论模型,包含产业集中度、供需基本面、安全研发投入等关键要素。实证结果表明:产业利润率与市场集中度显著正相关;公司利润率与市场份额正相关,而与研发投入负相关,后者是由煤炭行业的特殊性决定的。为了国民经济长足发展和国家能源供应安全,应提前加大对国有煤矿投资,保持适度供过于求;支持煤炭企业集团的兼并重组,同时鼓励竞争。

This study calculates the concentration ratio （CR） of Chinese coal industry from 1979 to 2007, which shows the market structure is para - oligarchy competition since 2007. This paper presents an academic model about coal industry performance including industry concentration ratio, supply and demand, expenditure for safety and industry policy due to the industrial particularity. The empirical results are as follows： （1） that the industry profit rate is positively related to the concentration ratio, and （2） that within coal industry, those firms with the larger market shares have higher rates of profit, but a negative correlation between company profit rate and R＆D. The government should increase investment to those state-owned mines in advance to keep moderate oversupply and support those groups to merge, inspiring them to compete as well, in order to ensure economy development and energy supply.