宁夏7-8月暴雨发生次数与北太平洋海温的相关分析

Remote Correlation between North Pacific Ocean SST and Rainstorm in Ningxia from July to August

利用1961—2004年宁夏7—8月暴雨发生次数和北太平洋范围的逐月海面温度资料,运用相关和合成分析方法,分析了近44 a宁夏7—8月暴雨发生次数与北太平洋海温的相关关系。结果表明:赤道区内的5°S—5°N,135°—95°W范围的海区被选定为影响的关键区域,当年4—5月被选定为关键时期;关键区关键时期的海温与宁夏7—8月暴雨发生次数有较好的年代际对应关系,冷(暖)水年与宁夏7—8月暴雨发生次数偏多(少)年有密切的相关关系;关键区关键时期的海温异常导致当年7—8月西太平洋副热带高压和印缅槽的异常,从而影响宁夏7—8月暴雨发生次数。

Based on the data of rainstorm in Ningxia from July to August and monthly North Pacific Ocean SST from 1961 to 2004 the correlation between SST and rainstorm in recent 44 years was analyzed by the method of correlation and comprehensive analysis. The analysis results show that： The sea region of 5°S-5°N, 135°-95°W was selected as the key region, the period of April and May in the same year was taken as the key period; SST in the key region in key period had better decadal corresponding with rainstorm in Ningxia from July to August, cold （warm） SST years had better correlation with years that had more（less） rainstorm. The anomaly of SST in the key region in key period caused the anomaly of the west-pacific subtropical high pressure and the trough over India and Burma, influenced rainstorm in Ningxia from July to August then.