近47a来黑河流域的降水时空特征分析及预报评估

Analysis on Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in Heihe River Basin and Forecast Evaluation in Recent 47 Years

利用1960—2006年黑河流域13个气象站,地面气温、降水等观测资料,对该流域降水的气候年代际特征及干旱变化的成因进行了初步分析。结果表明,该流域降水量,由于受地形地貌、海拔高度和不同尺度大气环流的影响,流域内降水分配极不均匀,南北差异很大,呈现为东南多西北少,但降水日数的年月分布和流域的地理分布与降水量分布基本一致。总体上变化均呈波动性上升状态。同时,对2000年承担黑河流域分水的预报任务中研制的黑河流域降水预报服务系统输出的24～48 h降水量预报过程的准确率进行了TS评分检验。证明该系统对黑河流域的降水具有较强的预报能力,预报产品在气象服务工作中有重要参考价值,同时也为今后的精细化预报业务工作打下了一定的基础。

The inter-annual climate change characteristics and the cause of drought in Heihe river basin were analyzed based on the observation data such as ground temperature and precipitation of the 13 weather stations in 1960--2006. The results showed that, influenced by topography, altitude and the different scales of the atmospheric circulation, the precipitation distribution in this basin is uneven, being more in the southeast and less in the northwest. But the rainy days distribution is consist with the geographical distribution. In order to rationally allocate the water resources, a precipitation forecast system was set up for the Heihe river basin in 2000. The forecasting accuracy of this system for the coming 24 to 48 hours precipitation was tested by the TS analysis. It was proved that the system has strong forecasting capability, and the weather forecast products have important reference value in weather service, also it can be certainly taken as the foundation for the future refinement forecast work.