河北省近30年耕地资源变化与经济发展耦合关系研究

Study on Coupling Relationship Between Farmland Resources Change and Economic Development in Hebei Province in the Past 30 Years

相对有限的土地资源已经成为经济快速发展的瓶颈,研究耕地资源变化与经济发展的关系具有很重要的意义。在分析河北省近30年来耕地资源动态变化的基础上,选取GDP、耕地面积为指标对1978-2004年间河北省耕地资源变化与经济发展之间的耦合关系进行了详尽的剖析,并利用耕地面积变化与GDP增长的对数相关关系式对不同经济发展水平每增加等量GDP所占用的耕地面积进行了估算。研究结果表明:①耕地资源面积随着GDP的增加呈对数递减趋势,两者的拟合系数很高,证明用对数递减模型方程预测耕地面积随GDP增长的变化具有很好的可行性;②不同的经济发展阶段,增长等量GDP所占用的耕地面积不同。当GDP分别达到2000～4000亿元、4000～6000亿元、6000～8000亿元阶段时,GDP每增加2000亿元所占用耕地面积分别为3.85×104hm2、2.25×104hm2、1.60×104hm2。

Relatively limited land resources has become the bottleneck of economic development,the study of relationship between farmland resources changes and economic development is very important.The paper selects the GDP and farmland area as indexes to discuss the logarithmic relationship between farmland resource change and economic development in Hebei province during 1978-2004 based on the analysis of farmland resources change in the past 30 years,meanwhile it estimates the lost areas for farmland when increasing the equivalent GDP in different economic development levels using the index correlation between farmland area and GDP growth.The results show that：（1）The farmland areas show the trend of logarithmic decrease with the increase of GDP and the fitting coefficient between them is high,which proves that using the model of logarithmic decrease to predict the change of farmland area with GDP growth has a good feasibility.（2）The lost areas for farmland are different when increasing the equivalent GDP in different economic development levels.When GDP in the stage of 2 000～4 000 billion yuan,4 000～6 000 billion yuan,6 000～8 000 billion yuan,with the GDP growing per 2000 billion the lost areas for farmland are 3.85×104 hm2,2.25×104 hm2,1.60×104 hm2 respectively.