土地供应对住房价格影响的实证研究--以上海市为例被引量：27

EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF LAND SUPPLY ON HOUSING PRICE: A CASE OF SHANGHAI

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摘要以上海市为例,采用Granger因果关系检验和基于预期的房地产价格模型分析土地供应对住房价格的影响。研究结果是:土地供应能通过预期作用对住房价格产生负影响;土地供应对住房价格影响的弹性系数为-0.01。研究结论为:为抑制住房价格过快上涨,政府增加土地供应的措施是可行的;稳定土地供应有助于稳定房价;土地囤积将减弱住房价格对土地供应变化的时效,应抑制土地囤积行为。 This paper employs Granger causality test and expectation based housing price model to study the impact of land supply on housing price, taking Shanghai as a case. The results show： land supply could cause house price, while not vice versa; land supply has a significant negative effect on housing price through expectation; the land supply elasticity of housing price is -0.01. The conclusions are： the measure of increasing land supply is feasible to suppress housing price growth; stable land supply is beneficial to stabilize housing price; land hoarding should be suppressed as it could reduce or delay the effect of land supply on housing price.

作者黄忠华虞晓芬杜雪君

机构地区浙江工业大学经贸管理学院浙江科技学院经济管理学院

出处《经济地理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第4期624-627,634,共5页 Economic Geography

基金国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70773106)资助

关键词土地供应住房价格实证研究 GRANGER因果关系上海 land supply housing price empirical research Granger causality relationship Shanghai

分类号 F293.3 [经济管理—国民经济]

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