火灾事故致因的多因素灰色关联分析

The Multi-factor Grey Correlative Analysis of Fire Accident Causation

运用灰色关联分析方法,以河南省6年的火灾事故统计数据为例,通过计算和分析纵火、电气、违反操作规程等多因素与火灾事故间的灰色关联度及灰色关联序;确定出影响火灾事故的主要相关因素;得出火灾多因素与火灾事故间关系的定量化分析结果。该研究为确定火灾因素间的关系提供了一种较为科学的定量评价方法,对分析事故主要原因、掌握火灾事故发生规律提供支撑,对提出有效对策有重要的理论意义和实用价值;同时,有利于减少火灾事故的发生,促进社会的安全与稳定。

With the statistical data of fire accidents in Henan Province in last six years as an example, the grey correlative degree and between muhi-factors, such as arson, electricity, violating operation specifications and so on, and fire accidents are figured out by using grey correlative analysis; the main factors affecting fire accidents are determined and the quantitative analysis results for the relation between multifactors and fire accidents are obtained. This study provides a more scientific quantitative evaluation methods for the determination of the relations between the factors of fire accidents, and is beneficial for the raising of effective countermeasures and for the reducing of fire accidents.