应用层次分析-模糊综合评判法对煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预测

Risk Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

现场测定某矿掘进工作面煤与瓦斯突出的预测指标值,该指标包括:电磁辐射强度、电磁辐射脉冲、软分层厚度、钻屑量、瓦斯涌出初速度和综合指标R;运用层次分析法确定各预测指标的重要程度;利用模糊数学综合评价方法对煤与瓦斯突出的危险性进行综合预测。结果表明,该方法对煤与瓦斯突出的预测结果与综合指标R预测情况符合性较好,具有较强的实用性和可靠性,对煤矿的安全生产工作具有一定的指导作用和借鉴价值。

The values of the prediction indexes of coal and gas outburst in a certain drivage face were firstly measured, including electro-magnetic radiation intensity, electro-magnetic radiation pulse, soft stratification thickness, drilling and cutting weight, initial velocity of gas inrush and comprehensive index R. Then, the weights of these indexes were determined by using the analytic hierarchy process （ AHP）, and the risk of coal and gas outburst was evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. It is conclu- ded that the prediction result obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is in accordance with the comprehensive index R measured, which illustrates that the comprehensive evaluation method has strong practicability and reliability.