应急决策的理论与方法探讨

Research on the Theory and Methods of Emergency Decision-making

围绕基于模板的规划、组织决策协调与基于Agent系统的协调机制以及马尔可夫决策规划等应急决策的关键理论与方法,对国内外相关研究进行分析与总结;提出以决策理论规划为应急决策研究的主要建模和分析框架;采用逻辑程序与规划相结合的思想,研究基于应急预案模板的应急决策规划方法;基于应急处置任务的时间、资源约束关系,研究应急处置任务的多Agent马尔可夫决策建模及求解方法。基于决策理论规划的应急决策理论可以很好地用于应急决策的多阶段动态过程建模,而且能够利用预案模板降低模型求解的难度。上述研究完善和丰富了应急决策的理论和方法,为科学的应急决策实践以及应急决策支持系统提供了一种理论和方法。

The paper gives an overview of recent research efforts of planning with templates, organizational decision coordination, multi-agent system （MAS） coordination, and MAS Markov decision process （MDP）, which are important theories and methods of emergency decision. Decision theoretic-planning is purposed as a modeling and analysis framework for the research of emergency decision-making. Integration of logic programming and planning is used to study emergency planning with templates. Based on temporal and resource constraint relationships among emergency tasks, MAS-MDP is used to study emergency task planning. The theory of emergency decision-making based on decision theoretic planning is useful to establish model of multi-stage dynamic emergency decision process, and reduce the compute difficult by emergency templates. The research enriches the theories and methods of emergency decision-making and guides emergency decision in practice. The research will also provide theory and tools for emergency decision support system of governments, organizations and enterprises.