摘要
研究导航装备维修用备件需求预测,以便制定保障计划的筹措、分配、储存、调拨、使用等各项工作的顺利进行。通过对季节指数法的详细研究,归纳出该方法的一般步骤,根据某导航装备维修备件的来源及历史消耗特点,在一定假设条件下,运用简单移动平均法修正历史数据,采用季节指数法预测维修备件消耗量,并利用GM(1,1)模型检验预测精度;两种方法计算得出导航装备某备件2008年消耗量分别为209个和214个,预测精度为一级,符合预测要求;通过对这两种预测方法的比较研究,归纳出不同的使用条件,进一步说明该方法在备件预测中的实用性和适用性,有利于备件预测的进一步研究。
Spare parts are the important material basis of the usage and implement of equipment, and the estimation of the spare parts consumption is the core question in formulating the support plan, which will directly affect the performance of the follow -up work including the raising, the assignment, the storage and the appropriation. Ac- cording to the history consume and the source of navigation equipment maintenance spare parts characteristic, using simple move in average to correct the historical data, adopting the season exponent to forecast the maintenance con- sumption of spare parts, and testing the forecasting accuracy with the model of GM （ 1,1 ）. As a result, the certain navigation equipment consumption numbers of spare parts in 2008 are respectively 209 and 214. The two forecast results differ within 3%. Through the comparison between the two forecast methods, different use conditions are generalized, which can guide the further research of the forecast of spare parts.
出处
《空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期51-55,共5页
Journal of Air Force Engineering University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
陕西省自然科学基金资助项目(SJ08F06)
关键词
导航装备
维修备件
预测
季节指数
GM(1
1)
navigation equipment
maintenance spare parts
forecast
season exponent
GM （ 1,1 ）
