复航河流沿岸港区的吞吐量预测方法的探讨

Discussion on throughput forecasting of alongshore port area of re-navigable river

利用多种方法对复航河流沿岸港区吞吐量发展水平作出预测。近期预测主要采用时间序列法、灰色模型法和修正指数曲线法,对各方法预测结果加权平均得出吞吐量预测值。远期预测时,利用灰色模型曲线和修正指数曲线构造复合曲线获得吞吐量预测值。最后在定性分析的基础上对吞吐量预测值作出修正。

Several methods were used in this paper to forecast the alongshore port area throughput of re-navigable river. In the short-term forecasting, time series method, grey model method and modified index curve method were adpoted. Then the throughput which was the weighted mean of the three methods was obtained. In the long-term forecasting, the prediction value of the throughput was obtained using the compound curve which was constructed with grey model curve and modified index curve. Finally, the forecasting results were modified based on qualitative analysis.