基于非线性动力学模型的旅游生态容量分析

Analysis of Tourism Ecology Capacity Based on the Nonlinear Dynamic Model

近年来,大量增加的游客给景区的旅游生态容量带来了较大的压力,矛盾日渐突出。为了实现景区的环境保护与可持续发展,研究游客活动量与景区旅游生态容量之间的关系是十分必要的。本文从非线性动力学观点出发,构建二者非线性动力学模型,并进行平衡态分析。研究结果表明:(1)系统要达到可持续发展,必须建立在景区环境的自我更新能力及人工恢复程度之和大于外界污染水平,且游客的增长率必须保持在较低水平的基础上;(2)景区旅游生态容量的承载力是有限的,所能容纳的游客也是有限的,超过一定的限度就会引起生态系统失衡。采取严格控制游客量,加强对景区内外环境的保护和改善、提升游客素养等措施,对于系统的协调发展至关重要。

Rapid increasing tourists in tourism regions have brought the biggest pressure to tourism ecology capacity in recent years, conflicting seriously with our efforts of environmental protection. In order to realize the environmental protection and sustainable development, it is necessary to study the relationship between tourist activities and tourism ecology capacity. Utilizing nonlinear theory, this paper attempts to show the dynamic relationship between the tourism activities and the tourism ecology capacity of tourism area. Through setting up the nonlinear dynamic model of the tourism activities and tourism ecology capacity, their essential relationship is also analyzed.The results show ： （ 1 ） To achieve sustainable development of the system, it is prerequisite that the sum of the environment self-renovation and manual recovery is larger than the severity of external pollution, and that the tourists growing rate remains at a lower level. （2） The tourism ecology capacity is limited; hence, the tourists a landscape could accept are limited. If tourists exceed a certain threshold, the ecosystem would be unbalanced and deteriorated. Therefore, it is vital for harmonious development of the system to restrict the quantity of tourists, promote the protection and improvement of the environment and popularize good behavior of tourists. （3） This paper gives a detailed analysis with the Wulingyuan Scenic Spot as an example. It suggests that the government should provide reasonable planning, which would avoid the constructive exacerbation of ecology in tourism region and help the manual recovery of unbalanced environment.