基于抽样调查的安徽农村民居震害预测与减灾对策

Earthquake damage prediction and countermeasures against earthquake disasters based on sampling investigation for village housing of Anhui Province,China

在安徽省的皖北、皖中和皖南地区,分别抽样4个乡镇总计781户农村民居,进行抗震性能调查,得出安徽省农村住宅在建筑年代、结构形式、建筑材料、地基基础及构造连接等方面的统计数据.在此基础上,运用建筑物地震易损性的概率分析法,对所调查的民居进行震害预测.分析表明,安徽农村民居在基本设防烈度地震作用下,尚不会发生毁灭性破坏,但中等破坏将较大面积发生.提出了农村民居防震减灾的政府管理和技术措施等对策.经济分析认为,增加约3%—4%建房投资,即可基本实现国务院的防震减灾目标.

We carried on an earthquake resistant capability investigation to the samples of total 781 village houses from 4 countryside regions in northern, middle and southern part of Anhui Province, and acquired data statistics on the building age, structure form, building material, groundwork foundation and structure conjunction, etc. On this basis, we estimated the earthquake damage of these buildings through probabilistie analysis of building earthquake disaster vulnerability. The analyzed result shows that the village houses in Anhui will not be fatally destroyed under the basic earthquake resistance intensity, but the medium damage is possible on a large scale. Countermeasures in governmental management and from earthquake relevant techniques for preventing village houses suffering disaster are proposed. Economical analysis result shows that the State Council＇s goal of earthquake disaster prevention will be achieved by increasing about 3% of housing construction investment.