黄河流域保护性耕作技术的采用：影响因素的实证研究

The Adoption of Conservation Agricultural Technology in the Yellow River Basin:Empirical Research on the Influential Factors

本文基于黄河流域的实地调查,定量分析了保护性耕作技术的采用及其影响因素,从而为制定相关的政策决策提供了实证依据。调查发现,黄河流域地区真正能采用规范的保护性耕作的面积很小,大部分农民只是采用了其中某一项技术。计量结果表明,政策支持、项目实施、劳动力机会成本和灌溉条件等因素都影响保护性耕作技术的采用。从长期来看,随着非农就业机会的增加,农民知识技能和资金投资能力的提高,相关政策法规的出台和有效实施,保护性耕作项目的试验、示范和研究工作的进一步推进,以及灌溉条件等基础设施的改善,保护性耕作必将被更多的农民所认识和采用,成为现代农业可持续发展的一种重要的耕作和生产方式。

Having realized the negative influences of conventional cultivation on environment, we regard conservation agriculture as a win-win technology, which has been developed quickly in some countries. Compared with some other countries, the promotion of conservation agriculture in China is relatively late. Although the development of conservation agriculture in China has been emphasized by Chinese government and researchers in recent years, almost no empirical researches have been conducted to understand the adoption and its determinants. The overall goal of this paper is to analyze the adoption of conservation agricultural technology and its determinants and provide empirical evidence for policy decisions which can promote the adoption of conservation agricultural technology in the field. The data used in the analysis originates from our field survey in 49 villages of four provinces （Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Henan and Shandong Provinces） in the Yellow River Basin. The survey finds that the adoption rate of normative conservation agricultural technology （adopting all the key components of conservation agriculture） is still very low, with only 18 percent of villages adopting it. In most selected villages, farmers only adopted one of component technologies of conservation agriculture. Presently, the most adopted technology is residue retention, whose adoption proportion reached 41 percent of all researched villages. The second largest technology is reduced cultivation with an adoption rate of 28 percent. Based on the descriptive statistics and econometric analysis, results show that machine subsidy policy can effectively promote the adoption of conservation agricultural technology. Implementation of conservation agricultural projects can also help with the extension of conservation agriculture. In addition, the more off-farm job opportunities there are for rural labors, the higher the possibilities for farmers to adopt the conservation agricultural technology are. Finally, the conservation agriculture is also easier to be adopted in regions with better irrigation condition. Presently, agriculture in China is still characterized by labor-intensive with inadequate off-farm job opportunities and weak ability to replace exiting equipments. Therefore, in short term, even if the government can provide policy support, conservation agricultural technology cannot be widely promoted. However, in the long run, with increasing off-farm job opportunities, increasing knowledge and capital investment abilities of farmers, establishment and effective implementation of relevant regulations, further experiments, demonstrations and researches of conservation agricultural projects, and improved irrigation conditions, more farmers would understand and adopt the technology of conservation agriculture. Thereupon, conservation agriculture would become an important cultivation and production pattern that can promote the sustainable development of agriculture in China.