战略环境评价中的生态预算方法研究——以武汉市为例

Study on Methods of Ecological Budget in Strategic environmental Assessment:A Case Study in Wuhan City

目前,如何动态的预测生态预算的结果(生态赤字或生态盈余)是战略环境评价的一个重要研究领域。生态预算的结果受社会、经济发展中的多种因素影响,这种影响具有时空动态性和不确定性特征。如果要利用社会、经济发展中的一些因素来预测生态预算的结果,就必须解决这种不确定性问题。本文根据集对分析的基本原理和聚类分析思想构造生态预算结果的预测模型,该模型把影响生态预算结果的因子作为一个集合,把生态预算结果看作一个集合,把这两个集合构成一个集对,通过这两个集合的同一、差异、对立的联系度达到精确预测的目的。应用该模型,对武汉市2005年～2020年生态预算结果的发展趋势进行了预测,预测结果表明:未来一段时间,武汉市的生态预算的结果仍处于生态赤字状态,生态赤字将由2005年的1329.947×104hm2增长到2020年的1405.566×104hm2。

Ecological environment is critical to urban ecosystem by underpinning human welfare. Currently, how to predict the value of ecological budget dynamically is a multidisciplinary issue in the research field of sustainable development. Many factors in social and economic development may impact the value of ecological budget, and the impacts are often indeterminacy. According to previous studies, traditional regression models were built to assess the dynamic trends of the value of ecological budget by transforming indeterminacy problems into determinant ones. Apparently, the indeterminacy information in the studied object was neglected. If indeterminate problems between the value of ecological budget and social and economic development can be resolved, the value of ecological budget can be forecasted with some major influential factors in social and economic development. The Set Pair Analysis （SPA） has been proved to be an effective forecasting approach among an increasing number of applications in the indeterminacy problems. However, the number of applications reported in ecological modeling was rather few. In this paper, through a case study of time serial analysis of ecological budget value and related socio-economic factors of Wuhan, a dynamic model of SPA was built to forecast the value of ecological budget in that district from 2005 to 2020. In order to build the SPA model, the authors put both the value of ecological budget and socio-economic factors together as a whole because ecological environment is closely related to and interacts with socio-economy. The process was as following： first, the value of ecological budget and related socio-economic factors were categorized into several corresponding groups. Second, the same-indefinite-contrary connection degrees were established between the sorted systems and reference system. Finally, according to nearest principle in the same-indefinite-contrary pattern recognition theory, the connection degrees, which exist between the data to be predicted and reference system, could be identified and the value of ecological budget was predicted as results in succession. According to prediction results, till 2020, the district would have been bearing an accumulative ecological deficit of 1405.566 × 10^4hm^2. To avoid deterioration of ecological environment, the authors put forward a series of countermeasures to uphold the urban ecosystem. At last, the paper further analyzed applicability of SPA prediction model used in the prediction of the value of ecological budget. The paper put forward a new idea for the prediction of the value of ecological budget.