四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究

A study on fast earthquake loss assessment and its application to 2008 Wenchuan M8 earthquake

地震发生之后,在没有开展地震现场调查之前,迅速对地震造成的人员伤亡、直接经济损失等进行评估,对地震应急救援决策非常重要.本文叙述了基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害损失评估方法,根据我国1989—2004年地震现场灾害损失调查资料重新确定的地震易损性模型,给出了汶川8级大地震发生后依据估计的经验地震烈度图得到的地震损失快速评估结果,并与依据现场调查确定的地震烈度分布图给出的地震损失评估结果进行了比较.表明根据近20年我国实际地震震例确定的地震易损性模型具有较好的适用性,损失评估结果的最大不确定来自于对地震影响场的估计.

It is very important for earthquake emergency and rescue decisionmaking to assess the seismic death and direct economic loss immediately after the event occurrence without any on-site damage survey. This paper introduces the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators, and shows the seismic vulnerability models determined by the data from on-site damage and loss survey to the events occurred from 1989 to 2004. The paper gives a result of fast loss assessment for the Wenchuan earthquake based on the empirical intensity attenuation relation in the region, and compares the assessment with the estimation result obtained by using the same method while a practical seismic intensity distribution map of the Wenchuan earthquake is used. The above comparison indicates a good usability of the seismic vulnerability models obtained statistically based on the practical on-site survey of losses to earthquakes occurred in China during last two decades. The maximum uncertainty in fast seismic loss assesment comes from the uncertain estimation of seismic ground motion.