全球气候变化对中国冬小麦生产的阶段性影响

Gradual Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in China

采用计算机模拟方法，借助ＧＩＳＳＧＣＭＴｒａｎｓｉｅｎｔＲｕｎ和经修正的ＣＥＲＥＳ－Ｗｈｅａｔ模型以及若干农业气象指标，评估了在未来不同时段（２０１０年、２０３０年、２０５０年以及ＣＯ２有效倍增的２０６２年）全球气候变化对我国冬小麦生育期和产量的阶段性影响，分析了各地小麦生长季热量和干湿状况的演进趋势，估计了我国冬小麦安全种植北界可能发生的地理位移以及麦田灌溉需要量的变化等。目的在于勾划气候变化影响中国冬小麦生产的轮廓，为制定未来农业发展战略和农业生产对策提供科学依据。

The GISS GCM Transient Run, the modified CERESWheat model and several agroclimatic indices were employed to assess the gradual implication of global climate change on growth duration and yields for winter wheat in China in different stages in future(i.e.2010,2030,2050 and 2062).Also,changes in thermal and moisture conditions and irrigation demand during the growing season, shift of the safe northern limit for winter wheat in China under 4 transient scenarios of climate change were estimated,respectively.The goal of this paper is to describe the degree,direction and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in China and to provide scientific basis for making agricultural policy and strategies.