能源、环境约束与工业增长模式转变——基于非参数生产前沿理论模型的上海数据实证分析

Transformation of Industrial Growth Mode under Energy and Environment Constraint:Empirical Analysis of Shanghai' Data Based on Nonparametric Production Frontier Model

文章以上海大中型工业企业所组成的行业面板数据为研究对象,通过运用非参数环境生产前沿方法研究能源、环境约束下的上海工业增长模式转变,研究结论表明:上海的真实GDP增长率在1997-2004年一直处于比较高的水平,但是2005年出现结构转折点,其后处于缓慢增长态势,近年来在能源、环境约束下,上海的真实工业GDP增长率水平向全国低值水平靠拢;从总体平均水平来看,上海工业效率近十余年来有所提高,尤其是对于具有高技术的行业和轻工业的效率有所提高,但是对于传统的重工业的效率在2006年都没有显著的提升;上海工业增长动力可划分为技术效率效应、技术进步效应和要素投入效应,因此在资源、环境约束下,转变工业增长方式是上海工业经济增长可持续发展的重要源泉和动力。

Using industrial panel data made up of big and medium industrial enterprises in Shanghai, the paper studies the mode transformation of Shanghai＇ s industrial growth under energy and environment constraint on the basis of nonparametric environmental production frontier method. The results show that the growth rates of real GDP in Shanghai are on high level from 1997 to 2004, but since 2005, its increasing speed has slowed down. In recent years, due to the energy and environment constraint, the growth rate of real industrial GDP in Shanghai approaches the national low level. On the whole, industry efficiency in Shanghai has been improved a little in recent 10 years, especially in high-technology and light industries, but the efficiency of traditional heavy industry has not significantly been increased since 2006. Industrial growth power in Shanghai can be classified into technology efficiency effect, technology progress effect and factors input effect, so the mode transformation of industrial growth is the important source and drive power for sustainable economic development in Shanghai under energy and environment constraint.