近46年来中国东部季风区夏季气温变化特征分析

Change Characteristic of Summer Air Temperature in East Monsoon Area in China over Recent 46 Years

利用中国东部季风区375个测站夏季平均气温资料,分析季风区夏季气温的变化特征。结果表明:(1)近46 a东部季风区夏季气温年平均呈缓慢上升趋势,但淮河流域出现下降趋势;(2)夏季气温稳定性随纬度增加而减小;(3)季风区夏季气温年均增温率0.104℃/10 a,全区平均状况看,1970年代中期后开始表现明显上升趋势;(4)季风区夏季气温变化首先表现为全区一致的变化型,然后为南北反相变化型;(5)根据REOF分析将季风区夏季气温异常分6个气候空间类型,东北、华北、江南及华南均呈现上升增温趋势,西南地区增温缓慢,淮河流域则呈现与全球变暖不一致的降温趋势。

Using the mean summer （June to August）air temperature data of 375 stations in the east monsoon area in China , we analyzed the c sult shows that （ 1 ） The annual hange characteristic of the summer air temperature of the monsoon area. The remean summer air temperature of the east monsoon area has presented a slowly upward trend over the 46 years, but it presented a downward trend in the Huaihe River Basin. （2）The stability of summer air temperature decreases with the increased latitude. （3） The mean annual incalescence rate of summer air temperature is 0. 104℃/10yr. According to the average condition in the whole region, the summer air temperature has presented an remarkably upward trend since the mid 1970s. （4） The variation of the summer air temperature in the monsoon area presented an all area unanimous model at first, then a north to south opposite phase model. （5） Using the REOF method we detailedly divide the abnormity of the summer air temperature in the east monsoon area into 6 climatic spatial model. According to the linear regression, the summer air temperature presented an upward trend in northeast China, northern China, the south of the Changjiang River and south China and a slowly upward trend in Southwest China. In the Huaihe River Basin it presented a downward trend different from the global warming.