乙烯裂解炉炉管剩余寿命预测方法

Ethylene Crack Tube Residual Life Prediction Method

综述了乙烯裂解炉炉管使用及选材情况，及炉管剩余寿命预测方法：Ｌａｒｓｏｎ－Ｍｉｌｅｒ参数外推法、空洞面积率法、直线外推法、Ｌ－Ｄ持久强度外推模型、断裂力学方法、多元回归方法、无损检测方法、应用专家系统等。认为目前的炉管剩余寿命预测方法大多是Ｌａｒｓｏｎ－Ｍｉｌｅｒ法的衍生，有一定的局限性，不适合现场快速检测。开发适合现场检测的软件或专家系统将是目前预测工作的发展方向之一。

In ethylene plant ethlene cracking furnance is important unit .This paper summerizes the ethylene crack tube residual life prediction method ,such as L-M method,L-D method, Fracture Mechanics Method,and so on. It sumed up the characteristics of each method . All these methods are based on the L-M method.There are some shortcomings in these methods. In the future the method using expert system will be a good method.