人民币汇率传递对我国物价水平影响的实证分析:2005～2008

An Empirical Analysis on Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Pass-through on Prices:2005～2008

本文考察了2005年7月至2008年2月期间人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响。研究表明,人民币名义有效汇率变动对进口价格的传递是不完全的,当人民币名义有效汇率每变动一个百分点时,进口价格指数仅变化0.22个百分点;人民币名义有效汇率与国内物价水平存在负相关性,这与以往的研究结论恰好相反,对此,本文从人民币升值预期和人民币均衡汇率两个视角作了解释;全球商品价格指数并非影响我国国内物价水平的最重要因素,我国经济体具备较强的抵御外来冲击的能力。

This paper analyzes the impact of variability of RMB exchange rate on prices in China during July 2005～February 2008.We find that the pass-through effect of RMB NEER on import price is unobvious.While one percentage of RMB NEER changes,there is only 0.22 percentage of import price index changes.There is negative correlation between RMB NEER and domestic price,which is totally different with previous studies.We make explanations for the above conclusion from the aspects of RMB appreciation expectation and RMB equilibrium exchange rate.The index of global primary goods prices is not an important factor of affecting China's domestic prices.China's economy has strong ability to withstand the external impact.Finally,we get some instructions on the basis of the above conclusions.