东亚区域经济合作中的中国因素：多视野的分析与判断

The "China Factor" in East Asian Economic Cooperation:A Multi-angled Analysis

持续增强的"中国因素"是东亚区域经济合作发展进程中不可忽视的趋势。改革开放以来,中国经济的高增长及其"内外形"巨变,极大地改变了东亚区域经济合作的格局,即由以往"雁行模式"变为目前的"菱形构架"。本文从"内形"与"外形"两个角度、全球和区域两个层次考察了"中国因素"的这种变化及其未来发展趋向,认为目前中国社会经济的总体发展程度,已经赋予中国影响区域乃至全球经济的足够实力,未来中国经济高增长的可持续性意味着这种实力还将继续提升。

China is an increasingly important element in all economic cooperation in the East Asian region today. China＇s high economic growth since its reforms and ＂open door＂ policies, and its internal and external transformations, have contributed to massive shifts in the structure of economic cooperation in the region. For one, Japan＇s proposed ＂geese-flying formation＂ in the 1970s and 1980s has ＇given way to one more akin to a ＂rhombic structure＂-formed by the larger economies of China and Japan, and the two smaller economies of ASEAN and South Korea-of economic coopera- tion today. For better appreciation of the ＂China factor＂ in economic cooperation in the region, this article offers four new perspectives on China＇s impact by reviewing. 1） China soeio-economic achievements thus far; 2） the sustainability of its developments and its possible effects; 3） its economic weight at the global level; and 4） its stature in the structure of East Asian economic cooperation. China today already possesses adequate economic capacity to influence both global and regional economies. This capacity, without doubt, is going to expand further, as China achieves greater, and sustainable, economic growth in future.