摘要
运用恒常条件相关(CCC)和动态条件相关估计方法(DCC),本文考察了中国金融经济周期与真实经济周期的动态关系。研究发现,从1999年开始,随着中国金融深化程度和金融市场开放度的提高,金融经济周期与真实经济周期的动态关联程度持续上升。金融因素对经济周期的影响越来越显著,货币政策对真实经济的引导效果进一步强化,金融经济周期在中国表现愈加明显。政府运用宏观经济政策平抑经济波动时,不能仅以真实经济指标作为参考,还应参考金融经济指标。
Using the CCC and DCC amodel, this paper studies the dynamic relationship between the financial cycle and business cycle in China. And we find that since 1999 the dynamic relationship between the financial cycle and real business cycle is increasing with the improvement of the financial deepening and financial market openness in China. Following that the impacts of financial factors on business cycle become more remarkable and the effect of monetary policy on the real economy is further strengthened, China＇ s financial business cycle behaves more obviously. Therefore, the government should depend on not only real economy indicators but also financial indicators when using the policies to stabilize economic fluctuations.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期9-16,共8页
Statistical Research
