中国通货膨胀的惯性变化及其货币政策含义

Inflation Inertia Structure Change of China and Its Implication

本文基于我国省际通胀的面板数据,应用Wachter(2004)的动态面板数据模型的内生结构突变检验,检验我国通胀惯性的结构突变。在此基础上,应用系统广义矩估计,对我国的通胀惯性进行估计。本文的结论为,我国通胀的惯性,随通胀运行的不同阶段和货币政策的变化而发生内生性结构突变,但总体呈下降趋势,通货膨胀的下降期和紧缩期的惯性较大,当前的惯性相对较小。

Based on panel data of inflation at the provincial level in China, this paper applies the endogenous structure change test for dynamic panel model by Wachter（2004） to test the endogenous structure change of inflation inertia model. Base on the test result, we estimate the inflation inertia with system GMM. The results show that the inertia changes with different stage and characteristics of the inflation, but appear a decrease trend generally, especially, in the periods of up trend of inflation and periods of disinflation, the inertia is relatively big, however, the current inertia is relatively small.