基于理性预期模型的最优货币政策的选择及应用

Implementation of Optimal Monetary Policy in Rational Expectations Models in China

本文结合中国经济转轨时期的实际情况,从福利损失和经济稳定性角度出发,比较分析事先承诺和相机抉择这两大最优货币政策规则,研究结果表明:一方面考虑到总需求冲击、总供给冲击和实际汇率冲击对经济产出、通胀、名义利率和实际汇率等各方面方面的影响时,事先承诺的最优货币政策规则对经济稳定性影响要小于相机抉择规则;另一方面事先承诺最优货币政策规则的社会福利损失明显小于相机抉择的福利损失,尤其是中央银行对产出的稳定趋向偏好时。因此,中国人民银行应该注重并采纳事先承诺的最优货币政策规则并为其应用创造各种条件。

Considering the loss of welfare and the economy stabilization, this paper gives an analysis on the selection between the precommitment optimal monetary policy and the discretion optimal monetary policy in China. On the one hand, we compare the dynamic response of the economy following a one-unit cost-push shock, demand shock and real exchange rate shock under precommitment and discretion. We find that under precommitment the impacts of there shocks on the economy stabilization are smaller than the impact under discretion. On the other hand, we find that in the discretionary equilibrium, output is over-stabilized while inflation is too volatile, leading to lower welfare than under precommitment. Therefore, it is reasonable for central bank to justify institutional reforms adopting the precommitment monetary policy rule in Chinese actual economies and actively create necessary conditions for implementing this policy rule.