应用气候因素对中山柏的生长量进行灰色预测

Apply climatic factors to make grey prediotion on increment of Zhongshan cypress

本文根据灰色系统理论,选用与中山柏的生态适应性和生长潜力有关的气候因素资料,采用关联序分析法,以关联度来作为气候生态适应性的一种度量,并结合数理统计原理,根据气候生态适应性关联度值的线性回归模型对中山柏的生长量进行灰色预测.结果表明,预测精度较高,而且计算简便,实用性好,为林木生长量的预测提供了一种新方法.

Apply the climatic factors to make the grey prediction on the incre-ment of Zhongshan cypress/Ni Yan*//Journal of Jiangsu Forestry Science & Technology.-1990, 17(2).-23-26 Based on the theory of the grey system, this paper selects the datd of the climatic factors which have relation with the ecological adaptability and the growing potentiality of the Zhongshan cypress to treat incident degree as a measure of the climatic eco-adaptability,and combine it with the theory of mathematical statistics, applie the linar regression model of the incident degree of the climatic eco-adaptability to make the grey prediction on the increment of the Zhongshan cypress. The result is clear that not only the prediction has a higher precisioh, but also easy to count and practice, and provides a new method for the prediction on increment of tree. *Author's address: Hangzbuo ecomomic information center, Hang-zhou, PRC