摘要
本文初步探索本次经济扩张时期中国需求管理经验的宏观经济学意义。中国经济的准AK增长模型与制造期投资模型,使得实际经济增长具有投资驱动特征而实际国民收入具有滞后效应。面临容纳滞后效应的修正形式中国菲利普斯曲线,保守型需求管理政策形成多重国民收入均衡状态,而进取型需求管理政策形成单一国民收入均衡状态,并且能够通过微撞操作而实现中国经济均衡调整的反向软着陆。
By modeling the decision-making of demand management, this paper attempted to explore the implication of China＇s experience in its expansionary phase since 2003 for macroeconomics. For China＇s economy, quasi-AK growth and vintage investmerit model were built so that economic growth was driven by capital accumulation and actual national income exerted hysteresis, and then Phillips curve was formed with hysteresis accommodated. In combination with the refined Phillips curve, while conservative demand management reached multiple equilibria of national income, aggressive demand management reached unique one and could make the reverse soft-landing of China＇s economic equilibrating adjustment through fine-tapping operation.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期1-19,共19页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
中国经济
滞后效应
多重均衡
反向软着陆
China＇s economy
hysteresis
multiple equilibria
reverse Soft-landing
