地铁工程风险评价——以南京地铁2号线为例

Risk Assessment for Subway Projects:Taking Nanjing Subway Line 2 as an Example

通过问卷调查,从总体和施工角度分层次识别了南京地铁2号线的风险因素,又应用模糊层次分析法对风险因素进行了评价。评价结果表明,规划阶段和设计阶段的风险因素列于总体风险评价的前列,而质量风险和地质风险则高居施工阶段的前列。风险的识别和评价是风险管理的重要手段,本文的评价结果不仅有助于识别南京地铁2号线的重要风险并进行有效应对,而且对其它筹建地铁工程的风险管理有一定借鉴作用。

This paper identified risk factors which Nanjing subway line 2 might encounter with by using questionnaire survey firstly. Risk factors were classified into 5 categories systematically with construction stage further being divided into another 5 sub-categories. The risks then were assessed using fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）. The assessment results showed risks in planning and designing stage ranked high in holistic level while geological and quality risks in sublevel of construction stage. This assessment results are expected not only to be helpful for managers of Nanjing subway line 2 to respond to important risks effectively, but also beneficial for other subway projects which are to be built.