费尔哈斯曲线在软土地基路堤沉降预测中的应用

Settlement prediction of embankment on soft clay ground by using Verhulst curve

为了预估软土地基路堤产生的沉降量,以费尔哈斯模型作为沉降预测回归模型,利用3段计算法和最小二乘拟合法对模型求解,对模型中的时间因子指数进行了讨论,并对费尔哈斯曲线法、双曲线法和星野法的沉降预测结果与实测结果进行了对比。结果表明:3种方法预测结果接近实测值,费尔哈斯曲线法预测最终沉降量较双曲线法和星野法要大;采用费尔哈斯曲线,不需要人为确定起始参考点的时间和沉降值,减少了人为干扰因素,同时偏大的数值对工程来说也是较安全的。

In order to estimate the settlement of soft clay foundation embankment, taking Verhulst curve as regression analysis model, and the model is calculated with three-stage calculation method and least squares fitting method to predict the settlement. The time factor index of Verhulst curve model is also discussed. The prediction datum of Verhulst curve method, Hyperbola method and Xingye method are compared with the ones of actual measurement. It shows that the prediction results of three methods are very close to the actual settlements, and the final prediction result of Verhulst curve method is bigger than the ones of Hyperbola method and Xingye method. Adopting Verhulst curve does not need to confirm initiative time and settlement of reference point, it can reduce the influence of people＇s subjective factors, and the bigger prediction value means more safety in project. 3 tabs, 4 figs, 10 refs.