世界粮食安全变化趋势和预测

The Changing Tendency and Forecasting of World Food Security

虽然全球经济出现持续增长和繁荣,但经济的增长和繁荣不仅没有消除全球存在的饥饿现象,而且饥饿人口仍在不断攀升,粮食安全问题依然严峻。从现阶段看,要从根本上解决全球人口膨胀与饥饿和粮食安全问题,需要国际社会的共同努力,缓解贫困国家和地区的饥饿和营养不良,使贫困国家和地区的经济与全球经济得到共同发展。发展中国家要保持经济的持续增长,首先必须解决面临的饥饿和营养不良问题,确保粮食安全。所以预测全球粮食产量(主要谷物的产量)、肉产量、蛋奶产量、水产品产量以及人口总量对于解决全球粮食安全,尤其是解决发展中国家饥饿和营养不良问题显得非常关键。文章采用线性回归模型、曲线拟合模型、指数函数模型、时间序列模型和灰色系统预测法为主的组合模型,对人口数量、耕地总量、谷物产量、肉产量、蛋奶产量、水产品产量等数据进行分析预测。结果显示,未来20年间,耕地、人口、谷物、肉类、牛奶、鸡蛋和水产品的总量都在增长,全球人均粮食总量将持续保持在355千克/人以上,与现在全球人均粮食占有量持平并略偏高,所以未来发生全球性的粮食危机的可能性是极小的。全球膳食结构可能会更合理,人均摄入动物类蛋白质将会提高,世界人民的生活水平将会显著提高。虽然全球性粮食危机的可能性极小,但是局部地区发生饥荒的可能性还是比较大的,尤其是北部非洲和远东地区的发展中国家。此外,还要警惕生物能源的发展带来的相对粮食不足和相对耕地的减少,引致粮食危机。

The global economy has a sustained growth and prosperity, but, instead of the hungry phenomenon in the world being eliminated, the population suffered from starvation increases continuously, which signifies a grave situation of world food security. Judging from the current condition, if we want to resolve such problems as population inflation, starvation and food security from the root, it is necessary to urge the international community to gather a common effort to relieve the starvation and malnutrition of poverty-stricken countries and areas, making their economy and global economy develop together. For the sustained economic growth of developing countries, the first thing is to overcome the problems of starvation and malnutrition and ensure their food security. Therefore forecasting the world output of grain （ chiefly corn） , meal, egg, milk, aquatic products as well as the population, appears very important, which is helpful for the security of world food, especially for the starvation and malnutrition in developing countries. This essay, by a combined model of linear regression, curve fitting, exponential function, time series and grey system forecast, gives an analysis of such i- tems as population, land, grain, meat, egg, milk, and aquatic product. The result shows that, in the next 20 years, since the amount of land, grain, meat, egg, milk, and aquatic product are all in growth, the total out- put of world grain will continue to maintain a per capita figure of more than 355 kilograms, slightly higher than the present world average level, that is to say, there is a little chance of the grain crisis all over the world. What＇s more, the world meat structure will tend to be more reasonable, and both the per capita amount of taking in animal protein and the living standard of the global people will enhance greatly. But that doesnt mean that there will not be any local famine or serious famine, especially for the developing countries in northern Africa and eastern Asia. In addition, be guard against the relative grain insufficiency and land decreasing due to the development of biological energy, which may cause grain crisis.