基于概率风险的节点电价波动性分析

Analysis of nodal price fluctuation based on probabilistic risk

电力市场环境下,电价信息对于市场各参与者的经济利益,对于市场和系统运行的稳定性有着重要的影响力。通过模型计算研究了节点电价的随机波动情况。以5节点系统为算例,分析了负荷波动情况下的电能生产成本、网损成本和阻塞成本的概率分布特性。虽然仅考虑负荷因素不能准确描述电价的变化情况,但是其结果仍可以给市场中相关人员提供有用的参考信息,减少自身的决策风险。

In the electricity market, the electricity price tends to influence the economic benefits of participants as well as the stability of the market and the system. In this paper, the nodal price fluctuation was studied through model calculation. Based on the calculation results of the 5-bus-system, the probabilistic characteristics of energy cost, loss cost, and congestion cost were analyzed. Although the price variation could not be described correctly with single consideration of the load factor, the result could still be useful to market participants.