摘要
目的为进一步提高城市工业需水量预测的应用水平。方法综合分析灰色GM(1,1)模型在需水预测应用中存在的问题,结合残差修正以及等维递补的原理,建立了改进的灰色模型以对城市工业需水量进行预测。结果基于两种不同的灰色模型,得出了宝鸡市城市工业需水量的两组不同的预测值,并对该预测结果进行了精度检验与对比分析。结论建立改进的灰色模型通用性较好,在数据变化较大的情况下使用,仍具有较好的预测精度,取得了较为满意的预测结果,有益于区域水资源综合规划以及中长期供水计划的制定。
Aim To discuss the water for economy and development of big cities in our country and to predict future water demand accurately so as to solve the problem of water shortage, a key problem in city development. Methods After analyzing the problems in application of gray GM （ 1,1 ） model synthetically, an improved gray prediction model of water demand in industry is built on residual error correction and equi-dimensional supplement theory. Resuits The water demand in industry of Baoji City is predicted by different models, and the prediction results are tested and contrasted. Conclusion The examination indicated that the improved gray model has good applicability. It can get good prediction precision and result especially on the occasion of big fluctuant of the data. The model mentioned above will have certain values on the development of regional water resource general programming and medium-long term water supply project.
出处
《西北大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期313-316,共4页
Journal of Northwest University（Natural Science Edition）
基金
国家"863"计划基金资助项目(2006AA01A126)
陕西省教育厅重点实验室基金资助项目(05JS37)
关键词
需水量预测
灰色理论
GM(1
1)模型
灰色等维动态递补模型
残差
prediction of water demand
gray theory
GM （ 1,1 ） model
gray equi-dimensional dynamic supplement model
residual error
