摘要
需求预测策略和订单策略对供应链系统的牛鞭效应会产生影响,对由零售商和一个外部供应商组成的单级供应链系统,假设顾客需求满足ARMA(1,1)模型,零售商采用均方根预测误差最小的需求预测方法,研究了推广的OUT订单策略对控制牛鞭效应的作用。通过在OUT订单策略中增加控制参数,获得了零售商的订单和顾客需求的方差比,分析了推广的OUT订单策略中的控制参数对牛鞭效应的影响。解析分析及仿真结果表明,通过对控制参数的适当选择可以有效控制牛鞭效应。
The impact of generalized order-up-to policy on controling bullwhip effect is analyzed under a single stage supply chain con- sisting of one retailer and an external supplier with ARMA （1,1） demand and minimum mean square error forecasting. The variance ratio of order and demand is acquired by appending a control parameter to the classic order-up-to policy and the impact of control parameter to the bullwhip effect is analyzed. The results of analytical analysis and simulation show that the bullwhip effect can be effectively controled through a proper control parameter in generalized order-up-to policy.
出处
《物流技术》
2009年第5期79-81,共3页
Logistics Technology
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重大项目-现代物流综合管理关键技术与平台(2006BAH02A06)
