CMIP研究计划的进展及其在中国地区的检验和应用前景

Evaluating the Progress of the CMIP and Its Application Prospect in China

由世界气候研究计划(WCRP)推动制定的CMIP计划,是一整套耦合大气环流气候模式的比较计划。该计划旨在通过比较模式的模拟能力来评价模式的好坏,促进气候模式的发展;同时也为生态、水文、社会经济诸学科在全球变化背景下预估未来环境变化提供可靠的科学依据。CMIP计划从AMIP开始,经历了CMIP1、CMIP2、CMIP3几个阶段的发展,并已为模式研究提供了迄今为止时间最长、内容最为广泛的模式资料库。尽管模式的模拟结果仍不可避免的存在一些不足,但世界各国纷纷利用该资料库进行模式发展以及与气候变化相关的多学科研究,为预估未来的环境变化提供了不可替代的科学依据。对其作了简要回顾,并对其在中国地区存在的问题和潜在应用前景作了简要论述。

mate Research CMIP, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, established under the auspices of World Cli- Program （WCRP） includes a series of intercomparison projects for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Its purposes are to evaluate and develop climate models by intereomparison, and to pro- vide reliable scientific basis for ecology, hydrology, social economics to estimate future environmental changes in the various global context as well. CMIP was developed from AMIP in 1995, and experienced three steps with CMIP1, CMIP2 and CMIP3, which has provided the longest so far and the most extensive database for model research. Although the results of the simulation model still included some inevitable uncertainty, countries around the world have applied this database to develop models and research multi-disciplinary associated with climate changes which has provided an exclusive scientific basis for project and discussed the present problems and the the forecast of future climate changes. This paper reviewed the potential prospects of using this project in China briefly.