石油价格与当前可替代能源供需变动相关性分析

Correlativity analyses on the Fluctuations of Petroleum Price and Alteration of the Supply and Demand of Alternated Energies

文章采用典型相关分析测定了石油与煤炭、天然气、电能间的相关系数。结论是油价上涨对主要替代能源的供需产生影响,但程度不一。油价上涨对矿物性或化石类能源的影响要大于对非矿物性能源的影响,这是因为前者的开发利用主要建立在资源禀赋和可获得能力上,而后者则建立在一定的技术实力和资金基础上。虽然各国情况有所不同,但依据总体指标计算出来的这种相关关系,可帮助我们了解未来世界能源结构和各种能源供需的总体状况。

The article tried to use typically related analysis and to determinate the correlation coefficient between petroleum and coal, natural gas, as well as electricity. The Conclusion is that, fluctuations of petroleum prices have a certain impact on the supply and demand of the main alternative energy, but the extent of the impact is different. The impact on fossil energy is greater than on non-fossil energy. The reason is the former main- ly built on the development and utilization of resources endowment, and the latter on that of certain technical strength and financial basis. Although countries have different situation, the relationship of the calculation based on the overall indicators can help us understand the world energy structure and the supply and demand situation of the overall energy in future.