中国货币政策扼制通货膨胀的效果——基于2005.7—2008.9样本的实证分析

Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy on Controlling Inflation——Empirical Evidence from Samples between July 2005 and September 2008

实证分析的结果表明,2005年7月以后,中国实施紧缩性货币政策在调控方向上是正确的,有利于扼制通货膨胀。但由于前期通货膨胀的惯性和外汇占款的增加,紧缩性货币政策的效果被严重削弱,甚至出现了"紧缩性货币政策下的通货膨胀"。只有各种经济政策特别是货币政策、财政政策和汇率政策本身有所改进,而且在方向、时间和力度上能够相互配合,才能提高中国货币政策扼制通货膨胀的有效性。

The results of empirical analyses show that after July 2005 the tight monetary policy is correct in the direction, and is helpful for controlling inflation as well. However, the effectiveness of the tight monetary policy has been undermined largely because of the inertia of inflation and the increasing of funds outstanding for foreign exchange in China. China can improve its monetary policy on controlling inflation only when various economic policies, esp. , monetary policy, financial policy and exchange rate policy are improved and cooperate with each other in the direction, time and force.