国际游资对中国经济影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Influence of International Hot Money on China’s Economy

国际游资通过多种渠道影响一国经济,从而对金融稳定产生干扰。从1985-2007年的数据来看,国际游资对中国基础货币发行表现出显著影响,使中国货币政策调控受到严重制约;国际游资与短期外债增加额存在单向因果关系,影响了中国的外债风险变动;由于中国大力采取货币冲销政策,干扰了国际游资的通货膨胀效应,导致国际游资规模与通货膨胀的相关性在统计上不显著,但国际游资对中国资产价格的影响却十分明显。在全球金融危机背景下,国际游资已经出现撤离迹象,这将会对中国经济造成紧缩性冲击。因此,中国必须加强对国际游资活动的监测和管控力度。

International hot money can affect the economy of any country through different channels, then to disturb its stability of finance. From the data of 1985-2007, it can be seen that international hot money has a significant impact on the issuing of China＇s base currency, thus restricting the money policy in china. Moreover, international hot money has a one-way causal relationship with the increased amount of short-term foreign debt, affecting the changes of risks of China＇s foreign debt. Although China adopts the monetary offsetting policy which can disturb the inflation effect of international hot money and make the relativity of international hot money scale with the inflation unclear in statistics, the effects of international hot money on the asset prices are rather evident in China. In the context of global financial crisis, there appears the sign of large-scale withdrawal of hot money, which can bring contractive impact on China＇s economy. Therefore, China must strengthen the supervision and control of international hot money.