摘要
P-Ⅲ型和极值Ⅰ型分布曲线是国内外采用的最大风速极值计算方法。用陕西省乾县和扶风两个气象站1972-2004年10min平均最大风速资料，用P-Ⅲ型、极值I型分布曲线进行30年一遇和50年一遇自记10min平均最大风速的极值推断。分析结果表明：P-Ⅲ型、极值Ⅰ型分布曲线可根据经验散布点与理论曲线拟合程度反复调整计算参数，特别应注意小概率事件的拟合，能使理论曲线拟合满足设计部门的要求，比较好用。
The Pearson-Type Ⅲ and the Extreme-Value Type Ⅰ curves are widely used in China and abroad for calculating the maximal wind speeds. Based on the 10-minute mean maximum wind speed data of Qianxian and Fufeng （Shanxi Province） from 1972 to 2004, by using the methods of the Pearson-Type Ⅲ, Extreme-Value Type Ⅰ curves, the extreme values of the 10-minute mean maximum wind speed for occurring once every 30 and 50 years are estimated. The results show that according to empirical scattering points and the fitting degree of the theoretical curve, the methods of Pearson-Type Ⅲ and Extreme-Value TypeⅠ distribution can be used to adjust the calculation parameters repeatedly. Special attention should be paid to the fitting of small probability events to make the fitting of theoretical curve satisfy the needs of users.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2009年第2期221-223,共3页
Meteorological Science and Technology
