多级负荷预测的基础问题分析

Fundamental analysis of multilevel load forecasting

围绕多级负荷预测及其协调问题,首先剖析了多级负荷预测的基础——负荷预测的分类方式,通过拓展不同的分类角度,提出了基于雷达图的负荷预测的分类方法,从而清晰地表征负荷预测的"多级"特性。从供应侧和需求侧的角度分析了相关因素对预测对象的影响途径,提出了多级负荷预测中不同级别电网对相关因素的处理策略;研究了多级负荷预测体系下母线负荷预测与系统负荷预测的关系,提出了"虚拟母线"的概念和应用方法;最后总结了多级负荷预测的分析思路和研究内容。的研究为建立多级负荷预测理论提供了广阔的空间。

Aiming at the topic of multilevel load forecasting and its coordinating, classification of load forecasting, which is the foundation of multilevel forecasting, is analyzed. By developing different classification dimensions, radar chart is used to classify load forecasting which clearly demonstrates ＂multilevel＂ characteristic of load forecasting. By analyzeing the effect of related factors from both supply side and demand side, the Strategies of dealing with the related factors by different power grid level are proposed consequently. By studying relations between bus load forecasting and system-level load forecasting under the framework of multilevel load forecasting, the concept Of virtual bus as well as its applications are proposed. The research topics of multilevel load forecasting are concluded in this paper. All findings provide broad prospects for establishing the theory of multilevel load forecasting.