基于粮食安全的黑龙江省耕地压力动态变化定量分析

Quantitative analysis of dynamic change of cultivated land pressure in Heilongjiang Province based on foodstuff security

依据1990—2007年黑龙江省粮食总产量、总耕地面积、人口等数据,运用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,对该省耕地压力进行定量分析和评价。结果显示,黑龙江省的耕地压力动态变化情况大致分为3个不同阶段:1990—1999年耕地压力缓慢下降,2000—2003年耕地压力上升,2004—2007年耕地压力迅速下降。近20年来虽然黑龙江省人口不断增加,但耕地数量增加幅度更大,粮食产量和人均占有耕地数量均在增加。总体上黑龙江省最小人均耕地面积变化幅度不大,耕地压力指数明显减小,耕地所承受的压力呈现下降趋势。基于国家粮食安全要求考虑,要进一步减轻黑龙江省的耕地压力,应主要从加大耕地保护力度和运用新技术以提高耕地单位面积产量等方面入手。

The Heilongjiang Province is an important base for marketable grain production in our country. For foodstuff security, it is essential to study the quantity and quality of cultivated land. Taking the cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province as the object of study, we analyzed and estimated the grain ultimate outputs, total cultivated areas, population data and so on between 1990 - 2007 in Heilongjiang Province by using the exponential model of minimum average cultivated area per person and cultivated land pressure . The result demonstrated that during the years of 1990- 1999 the cultivated land pressure drops slowly; 2000 - 2003 year cultivated land pressure rise; 2004 - 2007 year cultivated land pressure dropped rapidly. In the recent 20 years, the population increased unceasingly, while the scope of farming land increased even quicker. The grain yield and the amount of farming land per person also increased. As a whole the minimum average value of cultivated area per person in Heilongjiang Province has not obviously changed, the farming pressure index remarkably reduced and the pressure to the plant crops appeared a declining trend. From the point of view of national foodstuff security, the farming pressure in Heilongjiang Province should be further reduced that may be achieved by strengthening the political protection of cultivated land and adopting more new technologies to promote the yield of per unit area of cultivated land.