重庆市人口 耕地 粮食可持续发展问题研究

Research on sustainable development of population-cropland-grain of Chongqing

通过对1997～2007年重庆市人口数量、耕地面积和粮食产量的动态分析,以及采用spss预测方法对未来的2010年、2020年重庆市人口数量、耕地面积和粮食产量的发展趋势进行预测,结果显示,过去的10年,重庆市的人口持续增长、耕地面积逐年减少,人均粮食产量有所降低。未来的10年,该市的耕地面积还将进一步减少,人口会有所增加,人均粮食产量将有所减少。因此,应提高人口素质,遏止耕地减少势头,提高耕地质量,增加粮食单产。

Based on the analysis of the changes of the population, cropland and grain production during 1997 to 2007 in Chongqing , the paper used the spss methord to forecast the trend of the population , cropland and grain production in 2010 and in 2020 . The results show that in the past 10 years the population continued to growing,while the cropland redused years by years , and the per capita grain production has being decreased. In the next 10 years the cropland will go further reduce, and the population increased. Then the per capita grain production would be reduced. So the quality of the population should be improved, and the reduce trend of the cropland must be stopped in order to improve the quality of cropland and to increase the food production.