基于粮食生产的时空特征的粮食安全保障研究

Study on Grain Security Based on the Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Grain Production

采用平均值和变异系数模型对1980～2006年全国29个省粮食生产的时空变化特征进行了分析。按省平均产量和各省粮食产量的变异系数将粮食生产的时间序列划分为3个阶段,依次为低产高变阶段、高产低变阶段和高产高变阶段;结合各省粮食生产水平和年际变化特征,将各省的粮食生产分为4种类型,即低产高变型、低产低变型、高产低变型和高产高变型。从各农业生产区看,各农业区整体粮食生产能力随时间具有稳定性,但区域之间差别较大,各农业区内部省域单元之间的粮食生产水平差异较大,具有空间上的不均匀性,表明中国粮食生产具有时空上的不稳定性。最后,提出了相关对策建议。

The temporal and spatial characteristics of grain production in the 29 provinces of China during 1980-2006 were analyzed.The period can be divided into three stages according to the average product and the coefficient of variation in provincial level,which were lower yield and higher variation time period,higher yield and lower variation time period and higher yield and higher variation time period.Grain production of each province can be classified into four types according to the grain production level and the characteristics of interannual change,one was lower yield and higher variation type,the other three were lower yield and lower variation type,higher yield and higher variation type and higher yield and lower variation type.The grain production capacity in each agricultural area was relative stable over time,but they were quite different among the areas.And the grain production level among the provinces in each inner part that existed spatial heterogeneity was obvious different.The results showed that the grain production in China was not stable both in time and space.Finally,the paper put forward some related countermeasures and proposals.