摘要
应用灰色关联分析方法,对1988—2007年辽宁主要农业气象灾害(旱灾、洪涝灾害、风雹灾和霜冻灾害)受灾面积与粮食总产量的关联度进行动态分析。结果表明:对于受灾除了干旱灾害呈上升趋势外,其他灾害均呈下降趋势;对于成灾,洪涝灾害和风雹灾害呈下降趋势,其他灾害呈上升趋势。旱灾对辽宁农业粮食生产造成的影响程度最大,其次是洪涝灾害、霜冻灾害和风雹灾害。
Based on the grey relational analysis method, the correlation relationship between the disaster area of the main agrometeorological disasters （including drought,flood,wind-hail and frost） and total grain yield from 1988 to 2007 in Liaoning province were analyzed. The results show that the drought has an increasing tendency in terms of the covered disaster areas, while the other disasters are a decreasing tendency. The wind-hail and flood disasters have the decreasing tendency in terms of the affected disaster areas, while the other disasters are the increasing tendency. The effects of drought on agricultural production in Liaoning province is the most obvious, followed by flood, frost and wind-hail.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2009年第2期33-37,共5页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
中国气象局2007年多轨道业务建设项目"东北地区生态与粮食安全监测评价预警业务系统"
国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2004CB418507-1)
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所环境安全研究开放实验室开放课题
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目共同资助
关键词
气象灾害
受灾面积
粮食生产
灰色关联分析
Meteorological disasters
Covered disaster areas
Grain production
Grey relational analysis
