慢性活动性肝炎预后因素的分析

ANALYSIS ON PROGNOSTIC FACTORS OF CHRONIC ACTIVE HEPATITIS.

本文通过对３４２例慢活肝（ＣＡＨ）病人进行回顾前瞻研究，五年生存率为８０．９３％～８５．０１％。十年生存率为６８．７１％～７３．６３％，从住院病史、体格检查和实验室检查中选出４５个变量，应用计算机（ＳＴＡＴＡ统计软件）进行变量分析。单因素分析通过Ｌｏｇ－ｒａｎｋ检验发现有２１个变量在生存时间上有统计学意义（Ｐ＜０．０１）。其中有无肝硬化失代偿是一个比较综合的指标，对预后有明显的影响。多变量分析时，仅８个因素有独立预后意义。主要死因中，肝昏迷占３７．７６％（第一位），值得提出，最后死于肝癌占１８．３６％，这需引起我们高度警惕。

 A retrospective cohort study was carried out on 342 cases of chronic active hepatitis(CAH).The results showed that the fiveyear survival rate of cases was 8093%～8501%,tenyear survival rate was 6871%～7363%.45 variables chosen from that of hospital history,physical examination and the laboratory tests were analyzed by STATA statistical software.Singlefactor analysis by logrank test revealed that 21 variables had statistical significanse in survival time(P<001).Loss of compensation of hepatocirrhosis was a synthetical indicator and had significant effect on prognosis.In multiplefactor analysis,only 8 variables had independent significance in prognosis.Among the main factors of causing death,hepatic coma account for 3776%(leading the first position).It is worthy to show that the cases dying of hepatic canear account for 1836%.