不同目标函数下水文模拟结果的综合

Combination of simulated outputs of hydrological models under different objective functions

现代水文预报中,常常对流量过程各个部分均有较高的模拟要求.而降雨-径流水文模型在特定目标函数下只能对流量过程的某个特定部分(如高水流量部分或者低水流量部分)做出较好模拟.如果选用恰当的综合方案对不同目标函数下率定出的模型的模拟结果进行综合,则有望获得对整个流量过程都有较好模拟效果的模拟系列,基于ANFIS(adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system)综合平台,对分别在高水目标函数和低水目标函数下用SCE-UA算法率定的新安江模型的模拟结果进行综合,获得了综合模拟系列,在整个流量过程上对实测流量系列都能进行较好的模拟,并较大程度地提高了模拟精度.

In the modern hydrological forecasting, a good modeling of the entire flow hydrograph is required, whereas the rainfall-runoff model calibrated under special objective function can only well , late special part of the flow hydrograph, such as the high flow part or the low flow part. With a p combination scheme, a flow modeling series, which could simulate the entire flow hydrograph well, often roper could be obtained by combining the modeling results obtained from different model parameter sets calibrated un- der different objective functions. Two modeling series are obtained from the Xinanjiang model parameter sets, which are calibrated using the SCE-UA method under the high flow objective function and the low flow objective function separately. Then a combined modeling series , which can well simulate the entire flow hydrogrph and improve the modeing accuracy greatly, is obtained by combining them based on the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system（ANFIS） combination platform.