20年来中美关系及危机事件对旅游流双向互动的影响

The Impact of Sino-American Relations and Crisis Events on the Interactive Tourism Flows in the Past Twenty Years

本文依据1985-2007年相关数据,分析了中美关系及危机事件对两国旅游流互动的影响,将客流量统计值、环比增长率和占出境旅游比例分别与本底趋势线、Ⅰ型理想曲线和Ⅱ型理想曲线作比较,发现当中美关系危机事件爆发时,在入境客流量统计值、环比增长率和占出境旅游比例上形成明显的"凹形谷"。本文采用3条理想曲线为参照系,定量分析了7次危机事件对两国旅游流互动的影响,为探索国际关系及危机事件对出入境旅游的影响提供典型案例。

The paper, based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2007, analyzes the impact of Sino-American relations and crisis events on the interactive tourism flows. After a comprehensive study of statistics of inbound tourists, growth rate and proportion of American （Chinese） visitors on China（U. S.） to the number of American （Chinese） outbound tourists with natural trend curve, ideal curve Ⅰ and ideal curve Ⅱ , it is found that the concave valley occurs apparently when the crisis event happens. Taking the three ideal curves as reference, the paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of seven crisis events on tourism flows. The research offers a typical case for exploring the impact of international relations and crisis events on inbound and outbound tourism.